More inventory, stable prices, and a market that rewards discipline

The newest ARMLS sales report covers September 2026. The clearest signal is not a price collapse. It is a shift in leverage: active inventory increased, months of supply moved higher, absorption slowed, and fewer homes were under contract even while the median sale price held at $450,000.

Seller position: C  ·  Investor opportunity: B

This is a buyer-leaning market with stable headline prices. Sellers still have a functioning market, but they face more competition and fewer pending buyers. Investors have more negotiating leverage, but the higher supply and slower absorption mean exit assumptions need to be conservative.

These grades are Property Offer Blast's independent interpretation of the supplied ARMLS data, not ARMLS ratings.

What changed in September

Inventory expanded. Active listings increased from 23,410 in August to 25,251 in September, a 7.86% monthly increase. New listings also jumped 15.03% to 9,350. More choices give buyers room to compare condition, price and terms instead of feeling forced to act on the first acceptable property.

Pending activity weakened. Under-contract listings fell to 6,057, down 10.39% from August and 10.28% from a year earlier. That matters because pending activity is one of the clearest indicators of current buyer commitment.

Supply moved higher while absorption slowed. Months of supply reached 4.45, up from 4.22 in August, while the absorption rate declined from 23.71% to 22.46%. The market is still moving, but buyers are absorbing available inventory more slowly.

The practical seller takeaway

The strongest seller strategy in this market is not simply “ask more” or “wait longer.” It is to compare the full net result of each path. A retail listing may produce a higher headline number, but repairs, preparation, commissions, concessions, market time and carrying costs can reduce the difference. An investor offer may be lower but faster or simpler. Neither path is automatically better.

Actionable tip: before spending heavily on improvements, calculate the likely net after repairs and time, then compare that number against real as-is investor interest. If the renovation does not create enough additional net value to justify the cost and delay, it may not be the best use of capital.

The practical investor takeaway

More inventory helps acquisition, but it also gives the next buyer more alternatives. A flipper should not assume today's $450,000 Valley median guarantees a fast resale. A wholesaler needs enough real margin for the end buyer to choose the deal over competing inventory. A buy-and-hold investor still needs the property to survive vacancy, repairs, management and financing.

Actionable tip: underwrite the exit with time built in. A 63-day median market time begins after the property is ready for market. Add rehab time, closing time and a conservative resale period before deciding how much room the acquisition price really leaves.

Rental context: useful, but secondary

Property Offer Blast uses the sales market as the primary lens because sellers, flippers, wholesalers and many investors need to know what properties are actually selling for and how long capital may be tied up. The supplied August rental summary adds a backup-exit view: 2,732 new rentals, 4,969 active rentals, 840 under contract, 2,219 closed rentals and 45 average days on market.

Rental months of supply varied substantially by price range in August: approximately 2.02 months in the $2,000-$3,000 range versus 4.76 months at $5,000 and above. That is a reminder that “the rental market” is not one market. The actual rent bracket matters.

Bottom line: stable prices do not mean sellers have the same leverage

September's numbers point to a market with stable headline prices but more competition, more supply and weaker pending activity. Sellers should focus on net proceeds, condition and certainty. Investors should use the added leverage on acquisition without getting careless about the exit. The opportunity is in disciplined pricing and underwriting, not in assuming the market will rescue a weak deal.

Broad statistics are the context. The actual property is the decision.

Location, condition, occupancy, repairs, timing, terms and buyer strategy can move an individual property far away from a Valley-wide average. Property Offer Blast lets an owner submit once for free and compare direct investor interest, while active investors can review opportunities that fit their own strategy.